A novel modelling approach of integrated taxi and transit mode and route choice using city-scale emerging mobility data

Abstract

The modelling of mode and route choices of public transport passengers is an essential component of travel demand modelling and transportation planning. Traditionally, choice models are trained using data from revealed and stated preference surveys which are not only cost and time intensive but also suffer from bias due to limitations in sample size. In this article, we present a novel approach utilizing a combination of emerging data sources for non-private modes, namely public transit smart card data, taxi GPS trajectory data, and taxi trips transaction data in order to calibrate an integrated taxi and transit mode and route choice model. We apply our approach for a case study of the taxi and public transport system of Singapore using data sets obtained from the local transport authorities. We solve the first mile and last mile data gaps by overlaying the individual transport nodes against geospatial land use data in order to identify their actual origin and destination points of each journey. To model the behavioural inter-dependencies between the choice of taxi and transit options, we tested a two-level nested logit model and a cross-nested logit model. Along with the commonly included exploratory variables such as in-vehicle travel time, transfer time and number of transfers, our model also incorporates differences in travel cost and separate mode specific constants for peak and off-peak periods. Generic and mode-specific in-vehicle travel time and cost coefficients are tested in the utility functions for the transit and taxi alternatives. Willingness to pay estimates are calculated and compared against similar estimates from Singapore. We also present an application of the model by predicting the mode split between taxi and transit under selected transit and taxi fare change scenarios. Our modelling methodology is highly generalizable and can be applied to other cities with similar data availability.