A novel model independence methodology to improve multi-model seasonal forecasts combination

Franco Catalano,Andrea Alessandri,Matteo De Felice,Kristian Nielsen,Irene Cionni

doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18283

Abstract

&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single model ensembles. The potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. To this aim, a novel methodology has been developed to assess the relative independence of the prediction systems in the probabilistic information they provide.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;span&gt;We considered the Copernicus C3S seasonal forecasts product considering the one-month lead retrospective seasonal predictions for boreal summer and boreal winter seasons (1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;st&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt; May and 1&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;st&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt; November start dates, i.e. June-July-August, JJA and December-January-February, DJF). We analysed the seasonal hindcasts in terms of deterministic and probabilistic scores with a particular focus on &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;continental areas&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;, since little evaluation has been performed so far over land domains that is where most of the applications of seasonal forecasts are based. The most relevant target variables of interest for the energy users have been considered and skill differences between the prediction systems have been analysed together with related possible sources of predictability. The analysis evidenced the importance of snow-albedo processes for temperature predictions in DJF and the effect of the atmospheric dynamics through moisture convergence for the prediction of surface solar radiation in JJA. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;A&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; new metric, the Brier Score Covariance, designed to quantify the probabilistic independence among the models, has been &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;developed and &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;applied to optimize model selection and combination strategies with a particular focus on the most relevant variables for energy applications.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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