A Novel Method for Gas Disaster Prevention during the Construction Period in Coal Penetration Tunnels—A Stepwise Prediction of Gas Concentration Based on the LSTM Method

Abstract

Aiming at the tunnel gas disaster can produce major safety problems such as combustion, explosion, and coal and gas outbursts. Firstly, a time series consisting of the tunnel gas concentration was used as the entry point for the article, and the gas prediction models based on multiple intelligent computational methods were established for comparison to determine the optimal network prediction model. Then, this study proposed a stepwise prediction method which is based on the optimal network prediction model for gas disaster prevention during the construction period of tunnels at the excavation workface. The length of the input step, output step, and interval step were considered by the method to investigate the effect on the predictive performance of the model. The model was extrapolated by the rolling prediction method, and the adaptive grid search method was used to determine the optimal parameter combination of stepwise prediction. Finally, a stepwise prediction of short-term gas concentration trends was achieved for each construction process at the excavation workface. As a result, the best LSTM network prediction model was preferred with an R2 value of 0.94 for the fit and MAE and RMSE values of 3.2% and 4.3%. Results based on stepwise predictions showed that single-step prediction is more accurate than multi-step predictions when a reasonable input step size was determined. Moreover, with the length of both the interval step and the output step, the model prediction accuracy showed a decreasing trend. Generally speaking, the single-step continuous and interval prediction of the gas concentration at the excavation workface can be realized by the gas stepwise prediction method, and the gas concentration value can be obtained at any time in the prediction. It can also realize the transformation from single-step point prediction to multi-step trend prediction, and obtain the accurate prediction of gas concentration change trends in the stepwise prediction range (t+1~t+5). Therefore, the important security guarantee can be provided by stepwise prediction for subsequent gas disaster safety prevention and efficient tunnel production.