Abstract
Abstract. A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was presented. By using the mathematical model based on the logistic model, the process of the abrupt change could be analyzed and divided into different phases which include start moment, end moment, stable state, and unstable transition state. Meanwhile, the method was confirmed to be effective by testing in a study of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time sequence, and the results of this study specify that this abrupt change process (ACP) of PDO has a relationship with global warming.
Highlights
The climate system is complex and chaotic (Shi, 2009)
The abrupt climate change is described as the system transitioning from one stable state to another (Thom, 1972; Tong et al, 2014), i.e., the system swings between different states (Lorenz, 1976; Charney and DeVore, 1979), and it has been verified in the climate system (Dai et al, 2012; Baker and Charlson, 1990; Wang et al, 2012; Alley et al, 2003; Xiao et al, 2011)
As the evidence of a climate system swing among different states has undoubtedly given us an opportunity to learn more about abrupt climate change events, a new method to analysis the process of abrupt climate change, AM-abrupt change process (ACP), was proposed in this study, and the method has provided a new perspective to research abrupt climate change
Summary
The climate system is complex and chaotic (Shi, 2009). The abrupt climate change is described as the system transitioning from one stable state to another (Thom, 1972; Tong et al, 2014), i.e., the system swings between different states (Lorenz, 1976; Charney and DeVore, 1979), and it has been verified in the climate system (Dai et al, 2012; Baker and Charlson, 1990; Wang et al, 2012; Alley et al, 2003; Xiao et al, 2011). In order to clarify, such methods detect the abrupt change as 1 “point”, and the time sequence change occurring abruptly before and after the “abrupt change point” (He et al, 2012a, b). In order to determine when the onset, development, and extinction of the abrupt climate change events occur, a new novel detection method has been proposed. Through the definition of the transitional process, the abrupt climate change events were investigated as more than just a considered point, which may prove helpful in eliminating missed and false detection. By means of giving the parameters actual physical meaning, the logistic model could be used to detect the transition process This method is able to recognize the abrupt change process, which is different from the method detecting the “abrupt change point”. Yan et al.: A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change
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