A novel machine learning approach for rice yield estimation

Abstract

ABSTRACT Artificial Intelligence is quickly emerging as a technological solution for the agriculture industry to surmount its classical challenges. Artificial Intelligence is facilitating farmers to refine their products and alleviate unfavourable impacts due to the environment. The central concern of this paper is predictive analytics to develop a machine learning model to identify and predict crop yield based on multiple environmental factors. In this paper, a hybrid learner ‘RaNN’ is proposed that combines the feature sampling and majority voting technique of Random Forest in-combination with the multilayer Feedforward Neural Network to predict the crop yield. Research has also ascertained the essential features responsible for accurate yield prediction. The proposed model works for rice yield prediction, one of the chief grains of India. The region chosen for the work is Punjab, which is among the largest producer states of India for rice. The dataset consists of 15 attributes comprising the weather and agriculture data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department Pune, and Punjab Environment Information System (ENVIS) Center, Government of India. The study has also made a comparative assessment of ‘RaNN’ with machine learning methods like Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Boosting Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, Ensemble Learner, and Artificial Neural Network. Our model RaNN has listed a better prediction accuracy with minimal error among the other techniques providing a 98% correlation between the actual and the predicted yield. Abbreviations: AI – Artificial Intelligence; ANN – Artificial Neural Network; BR – Boosting Regression; Chem Fert – chemical fertilisers; DT – Decision Tree; EL – Ensemble Learner; ENVIS – Punjab Environment Information System; GBM – Stochastic Gradient Boosting Method; GPS – Global Positioning System; HMAX – highest maximum temperature in degrees C; IMD – Indian Meteorological Department; L1 – Lasso regression; L2 – Ridge regression; LMIN – lowest minimum temperature; ML – Machine Learning; MAE – Mean Absolute Error; MEVP – mean evaporation in mm; MLR – Multiple Linear Regression; MMAX – mean maximum temperature in degrees C; MMIN – mean minimum temperature in degrees C; MSSH – Mean sunshine duration in hours; MWS – mean wind speed in km/h; P1 – number of days with precipitation (0.1–0.2 mm); P2 – number of days with precipitation (greater than or equal to 0.3 mm); RaNN – Hybrid RF-ANN model; RMSE – Root Mean Squared Error; R 2 – Coefficient of determination; RD – number of rainy days; RF – Random Forest; SVM Reg – Support Vector Machine Regression; TMRF – total rainfall per month in mm