A Novel Loss Model to Include the Disruption Phase in the Quantification of Resilience to Natural Hazards

Abstract

Resilience of systems to natural hazards has become an interesting concept in civil engineering and it is based on the determination of the losses due to the impacts of natural hazards. In the last decades, many contributions have focused on the assessment of losses that may occur at the time of the event, as generally assumed for earthquakes. However, this assumption may be incorrect when the interval between the time of occurrence and the time when the system functionality reaches the minimum value needs to be considered. This paper aims to propose a novel method to quantify this interval, which is called disruption time, by proposing a novel formulation of the loss model based on infrastructure redundancy. The proposed method was herein applied to a case study that considers landslides in Sri Lanka. The main goal of the paper is to propose a formulation that can be implemented in a more comprehensive framework to calculate more realistically the resilience of systems to natural hazards.