A novel liver-function-indicators-based prognosis signature for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with anti-programmed cell death-1 therapy

Abstract

BackgroundThe liver function reserve has a significant impact on the therapeutic effects of anti-programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the ability of liver-function-based indicators to predict prognosis and construct a novel prognostic score for HCC patients with anti-PD-1 immunotherapy.MethodsBetween July 2018 and January 2020, patients diagnosed with HCC who received anti-PD-1 treatment were screened for inclusion in the study. The valuable prognostic liver-function-based indicators were selected using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to build a novel liver-function-indicators-based signature (LFIS). Concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Kaplan–Meier survival curves were utilized to access the predictive performance of LFIS.ResultsA total of 434 HCC patients who received anti-PD-1 treatment were included in the study. The LFIS, based on alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio index, Child–Pugh score, platelet-albumin score, aspartate aminotransferase-to-lymphocyte ratio index, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-lymphocyte ratio index, was constructed and identified as an independent risk factor for patient survival. The C-index of LFIS for overall survival (OS) was 0.692, which was higher than the other single liver-function-based indicator. The AUC of LFIS at 6-, 12-, 18-, and 24-month were 0.74, 0.714, 0.747, and 0.865 for OS, respectively. Patients in the higher-risk LFIS group were associated with both worse OS and PFS. An online and easy-to-use calculator was further constructed for better application of the LFIS signature.ConclusionThe LFIS score had an excellent prognosis prediction ability superior to every single liver-function-based indicator for anti-PD-1 treatment in HCC patients. It is a reliable, easy-to-use tool to stratify risk for OS and PFS in HCC patients who received anti-PD-1 treatment.