A novel interactive prognosis framework with nonlinear Wiener process and multi-sensor fusion for remaining useful life prediction

Abstract

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction plays a vital role in increasing the system operation safety and reducing maintenance costs. In industrial applications, there is usually a large amount of multi-sensor data generated. Therefore, how to construct an appropriate health index (HI) based on multi-sensor signals is very important for the RUL prediction. However, existing works treat sensor selection, HI construction, and degradation modeling independently as unrelated parts, which may result in the combination of sensors selected not constituting an optimal HI or the constructed HI not matching the degradation model. In addition, most existing works treat prior units as a whole to obtain a unique set of sensor combinations and fusion coefficients, which cannot reflect unit-to-unit heterogeneity, thus affecting the accuracy of RUL prediction. Therefore, a novel interactive feedback framework is established to construct HI, where the sensor selection, fusion coefficient calculation, and nonlinear Wiener process degradation modeling are incorporated into the feedback. Furthermore, an adaptive weight selection method based on particle swarm optimization and leave-one-out cross-validation (PSO-LV) is proposed to adjust the fusion coefficients in real-time. Then, the RUL is estimated by updating model parameters online, detecting degradation trends, and deriving the probability density function (PDF) of the RUL. Finally, two examples of engine datasets are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.