A novel insight on input variable and time lag selection in daily streamflow forecasting using deep learning models

Abstract

This study investigates the feasibility of using hybrid models namely Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), for short-to-medium range streamflow forecasting in the Mahanadi River basin in India. The performance of these hybrid models is compared with that of standalone models. It investigates the impact of selected parameters and associated time lags on the model performance and offers valuable insights into the use of hybrid models for runoff simulation. The hybrid CNN-LSTM model proves to be robust in capturing the overall time series and the typical high peak flows in both the correlation-based and constant lag cases. Also, the upstream discharges play a significant role in improving the streamflow forecasting. Furthermore, the consideration of all input variables with a constant time lag equal to the basin lag time may yield better flood forecasts, even in cases where computational resources are limited.