A novel hybrid model for crude oil price forecasting based on MEEMD and Mix-KELM

Abstract

It is of vital importance for governments, enterprises, and investors to forecast crude oil prices accurately, while this task is beset with difficulties and challenges due to the complex patterns in oil prices. This paper aims to propose a novel hybrid method to model and forecast the crude oil price by integrating median ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) and mix-kernel extreme learning machine (Mix-KELM). Firstly, the emerging MEEMD is employed to decompose the crude oil price into several simple subseries. Secondly, a novel mix-kernel is developed for extreme learning machine (ELM) by combining the advantage of the local kernel (i.e., Radial Basis Function in learning ability) and global kernel (i.e., Sigmoid in generalization ability), with weights of the kernels optimized through genetic algorithm. Thirdly, the proposed Mix-KELM is applied to forecast the subseries of crude oil price, and the sub-forecasting results are integrated to generate the final results. The empirical results show that our proposed MEEMD-Mix-KELM model with different forecasting horizons significantly outperforms the benchmarks in terms of forecasting accuracy and robustness test. Taking one-step-ahead forecasting as an example, the proposed model exhibits the lowest prediction errors in terms of mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean squared error with values of 1.1767, 0.0135, and 1.5717, respectively.