A novel hybrid method for flight departure delay prediction using Random Forest Regression and Maximal Information Coefficient

Abstract

Flight departure delay prediction is one of the most critical components of intelligent aviation systems. The accurate prediction of flight departure delays can provide passengers with reliable travel schedules and enhance the service performance of airports and airlines. This article proposes a hybrid method of Random Forest Regression and Maximal Information Coefficient (RFR-MIC) for flight departure delay prediction. Random Forest Regression and Maximal Information Coefficient are inherently fused in terms of Information Consistency. Furthermore, this article focuses on utilizing flight information on multiple air routes for flight departure delay prediction. To validate the proposed flight departure delay prediction model, a numerical study is conducted using flight data collected from Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK). The proposed RFR-MIC model exhibits good performance compared with linear regression (LR), k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), artificial neural network (ANN), and standard Random Forest Regression (RFR). The results also show that flight information on multiple air routes can certainly improve the accuracy of flight departure delay prediction.