A novel high order hesitant fuzzy time series forecasting by using mean aggregated membership value with support vector machine

Abstract

Over the last three decades, several researchers have been putting their efforts into developing non-deterministic fuzzy time series (FTS) models using the traditional fuzzy set. However, considering a set of membership values to each element of the time series, the hesitant fuzzy set glorifies the chances to capture the fuzziness and uncertainty due to randomness better than the traditional fuzzy set. Motivated by this, the present study proposes a novel hesitant FTS forecasting model employing a support vector machine (HFTSF-SVM). In this model, to diminish the computational complexity and increase the forecasting accuracy, we have addressed three key issues by proposing three new methods such as (a) a length-based discretization technique is developed to compute the number of intervals, (b) two sets of universe of discourse are determined for the same time series to compute the non-membership and membership value for each observation (c) each observation along with its mean aggregated membership values are adopted to construct the fuzzy logical relationships (FLR). To assess the competency and reliability of the proposed HFTSF-SVM model, six promising FTS models from the recent literature and four promising time series forecasting (TSF) models are considered for comparison using sixteen time series datasets. Extensive statistical analyses of obtained results confirm the supremacy of the proposed HFTSF-SVM model.