A novel forward operator-based Bayesian recurrent neural network-based short-term net load demand forecasting considering demand-side renewable energy

Abstract

Currently, traditional electricity consumers are now shifting to a new role of prosumers since more integration of renewable energy to demand side. Accurate short-term load demand forecasting is significant to safe, stable, and reliable operation of a renewable energy-dominated power system. In this paper, a short-term load forecasting model based on a bidirectional long short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM) using kernel transfer operator is proposed to achieve short-term load demand forecasting. To consider the influence of seasonality, holiday effects and weather on load demand forecasting, and simultaneously to improve the accuracy and performance of the forecasting model, this paper implements the dimensionality reduction of the input data by introducing an improved kernel transfer operator based on the Perron-Frobenius method. On this basis, a Bayesian Bi-LSTM for short-term load demand forecasting is formulated to obtain the probability prediction interval of load demand. To verify the validity of the proposed method, the actual historical load demand in a certain region in China was used for model training and verification. The forecasting results are compared with several conventional load demand methods using probability prediction technics. Simulation analysis shows that the proposed method can effectively reflect the short-term uncertainty of load demand, and is superior to the conventional methods in terms of forecasting accuracy and computational performance.