A novel exponential degradation approach for predicting the remaining useful life of roadheader bearings

Abstract

Based on the optimized exponential-degradation model (OEDM), a novel approach for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL) of roadheader bearings under different working conditions is proposed in this study. Specifically, the exponential process is used to construct the degradation process from a single performance characteristic under variable operating conditions, the generalized expectation maximization is employed to estimate model parameters, and the proposed degradation model is updated after new data is available. In the traditional exponential degradation method, the hyperparameters are only optimized, which leads to low calculation accuracy under severe working conditions. In the proposed method, the Bayesian algorithm and the Drift Brownian motion algorithm were respectively employed to optimize hyperparameters and stochastic parameters to ensure the high accuracy of the prediction results. In addition, degradation characteristics combined with sensory data acquired through condition monitoring were used to continuously update the RUL in the proposed degradation model. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by a simulation case and a case study. The results show that compared with the linear degradation model and the general exponential degradation model, the proposed OEDM performs well in practical applications and has a higher prediction accuracy. This study provides a reference for predictive maintenance of critical parts of tunneling machinery and cost reduction of tunneling.