A novel evaluation framework for China’s Environmental-Economic impacts by global trade

Abstract

China's commitment to promoting free trade, even as facing with surging protectionism, inspires the exploration of the trades' impacts on it. This study has proposed a novel research framework based on Multi-Regional Input-Output analysis and Scenario Analysis model to quantify the impacts of trade. Three dimensions (Environmental, Economic, Environmental-Economic) are designed to discuss the absolute quantified impact and relative quantified impact from total amount to sectors. As the world's major trader, it gives the support by quantitative data, for that trade had indeed made China a pollution heaven. But trade can benefit China by increasing its economy and decreasing its carbon intensity. And the decomposition analysis for quantified impacts is adopted to explain driving factors with positive and negative effects mainly from total amounts and structure. More than that, quantified effects on various sectors affected are different. Mostly sectors got positive quantified impacts by trade with carbon emission and value added, expect mining sector. And only transport sector had an obvious positive impact on carbon intensity by trade. For China's sustainable development, policies making should take into account of achieving more environmental-economic gains and avoiding environmental losses in trade, by effectively adjustment of total amounts and product structure effects.