A novel error decomposition and fusion framework for daily precipitation estimation based on near-real-time satellite precipitation product and gauge observations

Abstract

Near-real-time satellite precipitation products (SPPs) possess inherent application prospects in the hydro-meteorological field due to their convenient acquisition and accessibility. Integrating gauge-based measurements with near-real-time SPPs is an effective approach for achieving precise spatial precipitation estimates at daily scale. This study proposed a newly developed error decomposition and fusion framework, named EDGWR, which integrates error decomposition and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The final merged product, denoted as IMERG-EDGWR, was obtained from the near-real-time Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Early Run (IMERG-E) product. IMERG-EDGWR was compared with the raw IMERG-E, near-real-time IMERG-L, post-real-time IMERG-F, global multi-source merged precipitation data (MSWEP), interpolated results (IDW and OK), and direct application of GWR outcomes (IMERG-GWR), utilizing the daily ground measurements from 12 meteorological stations located in the Yellow River source region (YRSR). The evaluation results from 2014 to 2018 revealed that IMERG-EDGWR exhibited significant enhancements over the raw IMERG-E, surpassed the research-level IMERG-F, and generally outperformed IDW, OK, MSWEP, and IMERG-GWR. Notably, IMERG-EDGWR enhances the detection of heavy precipitation events, refining estimates of both magnitude and frequency for precipitation over 25 mm. During the winter season, IMERG-EDGWR produced the most accurate precipitation estimates with notable improvement of precipitation detection capabilities. An experiment reducing input data by excluding gauge observations from the GPCC dataset tested the robustness of the EDGWR algorithm, confirming its superiority even with diminished input data. The merging framework proposed in this study constitutes an efficacious and implementable solution to enhance the accuracy of near-real-time SPPs and is expected to be implemented in different regions in future research.