A novel ENSO monitoring index and its potential for drought application

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) changes the air flow in the tropics, causing global droughts, floods, typhoons, and other natural disasters. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of ENSO events effectively play an important role in disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper proposes a novel ENSO monitoring index using GNSS-derived zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) and temperature (T), which is called the standardized ENSO monitoring index (SEMI), and validated its performance by introducing the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Multichannel singular spectral analysis (MSSA) and Lomb-Scargle periodogram are first applied to determine the periodic signals of ZTD and T. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) is then used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of ZTD and T. Finally, the response thresholds of ZTD and T to ENSO events are determined using the moving window correlation analysis (MWCA) method, and the SEMI is established based on the relationship between abnormal changes of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) and ZTD/T. ZTD and T of 97 GNSS stations and the corresponding SPEI over the period of 2006–2016 in Taiwan province has been obtained to validate the capacity of the proposed SEMI for ENSO monitoring. Experimental results reveal that (1) annual and semi-annual periods existed in ZTD and T with the values of 365.25 and 182.625 days, respectively. (2) ZTD and T have good correlations with SSTa, and the coefficients are 0.64 and 0.70, respectively. (3) The response thresholds of ZTD and T to ENSO events in Taiwan province are [−1.13 °C, 0.84 °C] and [−1.09 °C, 0.69 °C], respectively. (4) The proposed SEMI has a good relationship with SSTa with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and has been proven to have good ENSO monitoring capacity by comparing with SPEI with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. This result is of great significance for drought and flood disaster monitoring by the GNSS technique.