Abstract
The use of electric vehicle across the world has become one of the most challenging issues for environmental policies. The galloping climate change and the expected running out of fossil fuels turns the use of such non-polluting cars into a priority for most developed countries. However, such a use has led to major concerns to power companies, since they must adapt their generation to a new scenario, in which electric vehicles will dramatically modify the curve of generation. In this paper, a novel approach based on ensemble learning is proposed. In particular, ARIMA, GARCH and PSF algorithms' performances are used to forecast the electric vehicle power consumption in Spain. It is worth noting that the studied time series of consumption is non-stationary and adds difficulties to the forecasting process. Thus, an ensemble is proposed by dynamically weighting all algorithms over time. The proposal presented has been implemented for a real case, in particular, at the Spanish Control Centre for the Electric Vehicle. The performance of the approach is assessed by means of WAPE, showing robust and promising results for this research field.
Highlights
Nowadays, transport is responsible for around a quarter of the European Union’s (EU) greenhouse gas emissions, being conventional cars responsible for around 12% of EU total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) [1]
For the ARIMA and the GARCH algorithms, the parameters of the corresponding models have been calculated by using a one-year length electric vehicle power consumption observations
The algorithm developed has been implemented in the Electric Vehicle Control Center recently created by the Spanish Transmission System Operator (TSO) (REE) for managing and integrating the electric vehicles (EV) in Spain
Summary
Transport is responsible for around a quarter of the European Union’s (EU) greenhouse gas emissions, being conventional cars responsible for around 12% of EU total emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) [1]. Transport is the only major sector in the EU where greenhouse gas emissions are still rising [2], becoming a key point for decarbonizing the European economy [3]. One of the 2021 objectives of the EU consists in a 40% decrease in emissions from new cars compared to 2005. In 2015, 1.26 millions of electric vehicles (EV) were on the roads. Electric cars include battery electric (BEV), plug-in electric (PEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and fuel-cell electric vehicles [4], [5].
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