A novel dynamic risk assessment method for hazardous chemical warehouses based on improved SVM and mathematical methodologies

Abstract

Effective dynamic risk assessment is crucial for identifying process hazards and preventing accidents. The rapid development of modern technology urgently requires the development of new dynamic risk assessment methods to address current societal needs, especially in situations where a large amount of real-time data is available. Consequently, this manuscript presents an improved support vector machine model (SVM), integrated mathematical modeling, to facilitate dynamic risk assessment for hazardous chemical warehouses (HCWs). Firstly, an indicator framework and a quantitative risk factor table are crafted. Then a mathematical model using knowledge graph and DEMATEL-variable weight theory (VWT) is established, which combines accident information with VWT to optimize the weight calculation and provides reliable prior knowledge for the improved SVM model. Ultimately, the improved SVM model is crafted by the establishment of an improved hybrid kernel of polynomial and radial basis function kernel, fine-tuning its hyperparameters with particle swarm optimization, and utilizing sensitivity analysis to simplify the model. The model is formulated to accommodate the intricate non-linear relationships within indicators and dynamic risk, thereby establishing dynamic risk assessment rules. Through a case study, the improved SVM model demonstrates higher precision in dynamic risk prediction compared to original models. The results substantiate that the model can provide innovative insight and methodology for the precise evaluation of dynamic risk in HCWs.