A novel deformation monitoring model for high arch dams using impulse response-based equivalent temperature and machine learning-aided separate modeling

Abstract

The anatomy of service status through health monitoring models is essential to long-term structural safety. Since deformation is the intuitive representation of the dam's operating condition, it is crucial to investigate the deformation monitoring model with high accuracy and strong interpretability for the safety management of high arch dams. A novel deformation monitoring model is proposed by incorporating impulse response-based equivalent temperature (ET) and machine learning-aided separate modeling technique (SMT). This methodology has three main sources of novelty. First, the impulse response-based equivalent temperature and corresponding temperature component are derived from heat transfer and temperature convolution theories. Then, the model parameters are identified by an improved firefly algorithm. Second, the components in the monitored displacement are progressively stripped out by clustering analysis, separation under equal water level conditions, and a robust signal decomposition technique. Third, the separated deformation components and environmental factors are modeled by the multi-output deep extreme learning machine (DELM) with autoencoder, and the monitoring model ET-SMT-DELM is thus established. The world's highest arch dam is selected to illustrate the proposed model, and the prediction accuracy, early warning performance, component shares, and impulse response mechanism are comprehensively investigated by comparing with several typical baseline models. The results show that the overfitting of the proposed model is reduced, and the prediction and early warning performance is significantly improved. The resulting temperature impulse response function and component shares imply that the interpretability of the model is also enhanced.