Abstract

Trends of globalization very often cause the emergence of phenomena that asymmetrically affect the overall sustainability of the transport system. In order to predict certain situations and potentially be able to manage the transport system, it is necessary to manage risk situations and traffic safety in a timely manner. This study has conducted an investigation which implies defining the level of safety of a total of nine sections of two-lane roads. The main aim of the paper is to create a new multiphase model consisting of CRITIC (The CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation), Fuzzy FUCOM (Full Consistency Method), DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), and Fuzzy MARCOS (Measurement Alternatives and Ranking according to the COmpromise Solution) methods for determining the level of traffic safety on road sections under the conditions of uncertainty. In order for the created model to be adequately applied, eight parameters were created, and they were classified through four inputs and four outputs. To calculate the significance of the inputs, the CRITIC method based on the symmetric correlation matrix was used, and taking into account the nature of the outputs, the Fuzzy FUCOM method based on averaged values using the fuzzy Bonferroni Mean (BM) operator was applied to determine their weights. To determine the degree of safety, the DEA model was created. After that, the Fuzzy MARCOS method was used in order to determine the final ranking of the remaining five sections of the road network. Finally, the verification of results was performed through three phases of Sensitivity Analysis (SA).

Highlights

  • Traffic safety and potential risk management is certainly one of the important goals in order to potentially achieve a safe, balanced, and sustainable performance of road transport

  • The increase in traffic volume entails a higher probability of traffic accidents on two-lane roads, but still the cause of accidents primarily depends on road geometry

  • Since the Obodnik-Klupe section stands out, by its length, it can be classified in the category of mountain sections of two-lane roads with an average gradient of over 1.0%

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Summary

Introduction

Traffic safety and potential risk management is certainly one of the important goals in order to potentially achieve a safe, balanced, and sustainable performance of road transport. Geometric road design on which road safety factors are based especially refers to the positioning of symmetric physical road elements, cost (efficiency) analysis, reduction of harmful impact on the environment, traffic volume, road accessibility, etc. In order to obtain accurate estimates of the effects of increased traffic volume, it is necessary to analyze all potential factors that contribute to the optimization of traffic flow volume. Risk management on two-lane roads with the aim of protecting human lives represents a possible impact on reducing the number of traffic accidents. By analyzing potential causes of traffic accidents, the geometric characteristics of roads are especially emphasized

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