A Novel Combined Model to Predict the Prognosis of COVID-19: Radiologicalmetabolic Scoring

Abstract

To investigate the performance of a novel radiological-metabolic scoring (RM-S) system to predict mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) requirements among COVID-19 patients and to compare performance with the chest computed-tomography severity-scoring (C-CT-SS). The RMS was created from scoring systems such as visual coronary-artery-calcification scoring (V-CAC-S), hepatic-steatosis scoring (HS-S) and pancreatic-steatosis scoring (PS-S). Between May 2021 and January 2022, 397 patients with COVID-19 were included in this retrospective cohort study. All demographic, clinical and laboratory data and chest CT images of patients were retrospectively reviewed. RM-S, V-CAC-S, HS-S, PS-S and C-CT-SS scores were calculated, and their performance in predicting mortality and ICU requirement were evaluated by univariate and multivariable analyses. A total of 32 (8.1%) patients died, and 77 (19.4%) patients required ICU admission. Mortality and ICU admission were both associated with older age (p < 0.001). Sex distribution was similar in the deceased vs. survivor and ICU vs. non-ICU comparisons (p = 0.974 and p = 0.626, respectively). Multiple logistic regression revealed that mortality was independently associated with having a C-CT-SS score of ≥ 14 (p < 0.001) and severe RM-S category (p = 0.010), while ICU requirement was independently associated with having a C-CT-SS score of ≥ 14 (p < 0.001) and severe V-CAC-S category (p = 0.010). RM-S, C-CT-SS, and V-CAC-S are useful tools that can be used to predict patients with poor prognoses for COVID-19. Long-term prospective follow-up of patients with high RM-S scores can be useful for predicting long COVID.