A novel clustering algorithm based on mathematical morphology for wind power generation prediction

Abstract

Wind power has the characteristic of daily similarity. Furthermore, days with wind power variation trends reflect similar meteorological phenomena. Therefore, wind power prediction accuracy can be improved and computational complexity during model simulation reduced by choosing the historical days whose numerical weather prediction information is similar to that of the predicted day as training samples. This paper proposes a new prediction model based on a novel dilation and erosion (DE) clustering algorithm for wind power generation. In the proposed model, the days with similar numerical weather prediction (NWP) information to the predicted day are selected via the proposed DE clustering algorithm, which is based on the basic operations in mathematical morphology. And the proposed DE clustering algorithm can cluster automatically without supervision. Case study conducted using data from Yilan wind farm in northeast China indicate that the performance of the new generalized regression neural network (GRNN) prediction model based on the proposed DE clustering algorithm (DE clustering-GRNN) is better than that of the DPK-medoids clustering-GRNN, the K-means clustering-GRNN, and the AM-GRNN in terms of day-ahead wind power prediction. Further, the proposed DE clustering-GRNN model is adaptive.