A novel clinical immune-related prognostic model predicts the overall survival of mantle cell lymphoma.

Abstract

The mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) International Prognostic Index (MIPI) and combined MIPI (MIPI-c) are commonly used for risk classification of MCL patients. However, these indexes lack immune-related parameters. The purpose of this study was to develop a novel prognostic model that integrated clinical and immune parameters. A total of 189 patients with newly diagnosed MCL from January 2010 to June 2020 were enrolled in our study. A nomogram and immune-related prognostic index (IRPI) were established to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients according to univariate and multivariate analyses. Discrimination and calibration were used to compare the prognostic performance of the IRPI, MIPI, and MIPI-c. External validation was performed based on validation dataset (n=150) from two other centers. The results for the training dataset indicated that B symptoms, platelet count, B2M level, CD4+ T-cell count<26.7% and CD8+ T-cell count>44.2% were predictors for OS. All the prognostic factors were integrated into the nomogram. For the overlap of confidence intervals of each variable, we assigned one point for each factor. The IRPI categorized patients into three risk categories: a score of zero indicated low risk, a score of one or two indicated intermediate risk, and a score of ≥3 indicated high risk. The IRPI showed better discrimination and calibration power than the MIPI and MIPI-c in the training dataset and validation dataset. The novel IRPI is a refined risk stratification index and reflects the strong complementary prognostic effects between clinical and immune parameters in MCL.