A novel approach to forecast promising technology through patent analysis

Abstract

Forecasting promising technology is a relevant opportunity for management of companies and countries. Furthermore, researchers in research and development (R&D) have recently considered that patents include detailed information on developed technologies. For these reasons, we suggest a novel approach to forecasting PT using patent analysis. The overall process of the proposed methodology consists of three steps. First, to form technology clusters, we clustered patent documents on the basis of the cooperative patent classification (CPC), which represents a more detailed technology classification system than the international patent classification (IPC). Second, regarding the process of defining technology clusters, we examined the combination of CPCs of each formed clusters. Finally, patent indicators such as forward citations, triadic patent families, and independent claims are analyzed to assess whether the technology clusters are promising. We collected patent data on the wellness care industry from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to verify the proposed methodology.