A novel approach to estimating soil yield risk in fire prone ecosystems

Abstract

Increasing fire activity in the American west heightens the need for natural resource managers to identify where risk associated with post-fire effects is greatest. This is particularly true for water resources, as many headwater forests are at risk for stand replacing fires. However, current methods to model post-fire erosion often have trade-offs between model area and spatial resolution. We introduce a novel approach to combine a process-based erosion model and state-and-transition simulation modeling to estimate post-fire sediment yield and identify areas of high risk. We demonstrate how this method can be applied at three scales: large watershed, sub-watershed, and single fire event. The combination of the erosion model and state-and-transition simulation model allowed us to identify areas of post-fire high sediment yield potential and increased likelihood of fire occurrence. This method can be used by land managers to prioritize pre-fire restoration practices or post-fire rehabilitation actions.