Abstract
Abstract. We propose a novel framework for assessing the risk associated with seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing, which has been a notable source of recent public concern. The framework combines statistical forecast models for injection-induced seismicity, ground motion prediction equations, and exposure models for affected areas, to quantitatively link the volume of fluid injected during operations with the potential for nuisance felt ground motions. Such (relatively small) motions are expected to be more aligned with the public tolerance threshold for induced seismicity than larger ground shaking that could cause structural damage. This proactive type of framework, which facilitates control of the injection volume ahead of time for risk mitigation, has significant advantages over reactive-type magnitude and ground-motion-based systems typically used for induced seismicity management. The framework is applied to the region surrounding the Preston New Road shale gas site in North West England. A notable finding is that the calculations are particularly sensitive to assumptions of the seismicity forecast model used, i.e. whether it limits the cumulative seismic moment released for a given volume or assumes seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg–Richter distribution for tectonic events. Finally, we discuss how the framework can be used to inform relevant policy.
Highlights
Awareness and concern regarding the impacts of seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing have grown significantly in recent years (e.g Ellsworth, 2013; Davies et al, 2013; Cotton et al, 2014; Whitmarsh et al, 2015; Williams et al, 2017; Atkinson et al, 2020), which may pose a threat to the future development of unconventional gas resources (Kraft et al, 2009)
Note that the Cremen et al (2019b) ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) is not strictly intended for hypocentral distances < 2 km; we deem its use in such cases acceptable here in the absence of an appropriate alternative model that has been calibrated for such shallow depths and given that these distances comprise less than 0.3 % of all those simulated within 5 km
The framework explicitly links the volume of fluid injected during operations to the risk of nuisance ground shaking, by combining statistical forecast models for injectionrelated seismicity, ground motion prediction equations for hydraulic fracturing, exposure models for affected regions, and suggested nuisance risk thresholds adopted from previous studies on human discomfort to vibrations
Summary
Awareness and concern regarding the impacts of seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing have grown significantly in recent years (e.g Ellsworth, 2013; Davies et al, 2013; Cotton et al, 2014; Whitmarsh et al, 2015; Williams et al, 2017; Atkinson et al, 2020), which may pose a threat to the future development of unconventional gas resources (Kraft et al, 2009). This paper proposes a novel risk assessment framework for hydraulic-fracture-induced seismicity that directly links the volume of fluid injected during an operation to its potential for causing nuisance ground motions, i.e. shaking that is an inconvenience to society and may raise annoyance or distress among the public (Foulger et al, 2018). This type of shaking is expected to be more in line with public tolerances for induced seismicity than larger ground motions that have the potential to cause structural damage (Bommer et al, 2015).
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