Abstract
In this paper we derive the Hotelling rule of optimal natural resource depletion, modified to account for uncertainty in rates of return. It is shown that in the presence of risk aversion, the rule implies that the expected equilibrium rate of increase of net resource price must equal the expected rate of interest if and only if there exists a zero covariance between the marginal utility of consumption and the difference between the rate of net price increase and the rate of interest. The sign of this covariance is an empirical question, as an example illustrates.
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