A note on the multimodel superensemble technique for reducing forecast errors

Abstract

The multimodel superensemble (SE) technique has been used with considerable success to improve meteorological forecasts and is now being applied to ocean models. Although the technique has been shown to produce deterministic forecasts that can be superior to the individual models in the ensemble or a simple multimodel ensemble forecast, there is a clear need to understand its strengths and limitations. This paper is an attempt to do so in simple, easily understood contexts. The results demonstrate that the SE forecast is almost always better than the simple ensemble forecast, the degree of improvement depending on the properties of the models in the ensemble. However, the skill of the SE forecast with respect to the true forecast depends on a number of factors, principal among which is the skill of the models in the ensemble. As can be expected, if the ensemble consists of models with poor skill, the SE forecast will also be poor, although better than the ensemble forecast. On the other hand, the inclusion of even a single skillful model in the ensemble increases the forecast skill significantly.