Abstract

In recent years, the Kalman filter has been used extensively to compute the exact likelihood of autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models. See, for example, Akaike (1978), Gardner, Harvey & Phillips (1980), Jones (1980) and Harvey & Pierse (1984). Using the Cholesky factorization, Ansley (1979) gave an alternative computationally efficient algorithm for computing the likelihood of an ARMA model when there are no missing observations. In particular, he showed how to obtain substantial computational savings for the seasonal moving average model by using the Cholesky factorization. By applying his Theorem 4-1, we can obtain similar savings for an algorithm based on the Kalman filter. An extension of the result to a seasonal ARMA model is also given. We consider the zero mean seasonal moving average model

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