Abstract
As climate change accelerates the melting of ice, sea control competition looms over the abundant Arctic region. In this paper I conduct a military analysis of a sea control campaign between two Arctic neighbors — Norway and Russia. I seek to answer three questions. (1) If sufficiently motivated, is the Russian military capable of executing a fait accompli seizure of Norwegian waters in the Arctic? (2) If so, what could the Norwegian military do to confront this aggression? (3) What lessons does this scenario reveal about naval warfare in the missile age and the challenges of military operations in an Arctic environment? I find that Russia would be capable of seizing Norwegian waters for commercial exploitation. Nonetheless, despite Norway’s limited naval power projection capabilities, it could exact significant costs on the Russian fleet through the use of air power and submarines. The analysis concludes with lessons for power projection in an Arctic environment.
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