A non-probabilistic reliability analysis on uncertainties systems

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the non-probabilistic methods to deal with uncertainties problems. First, this paper analyzes the difference between non-probabilistic reliability methods and traditional probabilistic reliability methods, which makes the comparative analysis on aspects of the application scope of methods, the use of processes and the complexity of employment. Second, this paper introduces the basic concept of the convex model, as the interval model, the ellipsoid model and the multidimensional ellipsoid model are briefly presented. Third, this paper analyzes the use of information gap model of uncertainty, including the basic application of the model and the way to use. Finally, numerical example is given to illustrate the validity and efficiency of non-probabilistic reliability method. The example used herein is reliability analysis of fatigue strength of turbine blade, but it is also an important reference of other types of uncertainties systems. Compared with the probability approach, the non-probabilistic information gap model only requires a small amount of samples to obtain the variation bounds of the imprecise parameters, and whereby makes the reliability analysis very convenient and economical.