Abstract
Abstract Accurate and reliable drought monitoring is essential to drought mitigation efforts and reduction of social vulnerability. A variety of indices, such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI), are used for drought monitoring based on different indicator variables. Because of the complexity of drought phenomena in their causation and impact, drought monitoring based on a single variable may be insufficient for detecting drought conditions in a prompt and reliable manner. This study outlines a multivariate, multi-index drought monitoring framework, namely, the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI), for describing droughts based on the states of precipitation and soil moisture. In this study, the MSDI is evaluated against U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) data as well as the commonly used standardized indices for drought monitoring, including detecting drought onset, persistence, and spatial extent across the continental United States. The results indicate that MSDI includes attractive properties, such as higher probability of drought detection, compared to individual precipitation and soil moisture–based drought indices. This study shows that the MSDI leads to drought information generally consistent with the USDM and provides additional information and insights into drought monitoring.
Highlights
Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards and could result in devastating effects to social and ecological systems
The multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) determines the drought onset similar to the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and describes the drought persistence and termination similar to the SSI, which is consistent with the result from the parametric MSDI (Hao and AghaKouchak 2013)
Given the complexity of drought phenomena in their onset, development, and termination, drought monitoring based on a single variable may not be sufficient for detecting drought conditions promptly and reliably
Summary
Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards and could result in devastating effects to social and ecological systems. The annual economic damage of droughts across the continental United States is estimated to be $6–8 billion on average (FEMA 1995). The 2002 widespread drought over large portions of 30 states resulted in estimated damages–costs of over $10 billion (Lott and Ross 2006). Drought monitoring and prediction is of critical importance for risk assessment and decision making, as well as for taking prompt and effective actions to avoid–reduce the effects of droughts. The development of a comprehensive drought monitoring system capable of providing early warning of a drought’s onset, severity, persistence, and spatial extent in a timely manner is a critical component in establishing a national drought policy or strategy
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