A nonlinear multi-population behavioral model to assess the roles of education campaigns, random supply of aids, and delayed ART treatment in HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Abstract

The successful reduction in prevalence rates of HIV in many countries is attributed to control measures such as information and education campaigns (IEC), antiretroviral therapy (ART), and national, multinational and multilateral support providing official developmental assistance (ODAs) to combat HIV. However, control of HIV epidemics can be interrupted by limited random supply of ODAs, high poverty rates and low living standards. This study presents a stochastic HIV/AIDS model with treatment assessing the roles of IEC, the supply of ODAs and early treatment in HIV epidemics. The supply of ODAs is assessed via the availability of medical and financial resources leading more people to get tested and begin early ART. The basic reproduction number ($\mathfrak{R}_{0}$) for the dynamics is obtained, and other results for HIV control are obtained by conducting stability analysis for the stochastic SITRZ disease dynamics. Moreover, the model is applied to Uganda HIV/AIDS data, wherein linear regression is applied to predict the $\mathfrak{R}_{0}$ over time, and to determine the importance of ART treatment in the dynamics.