Abstract
The transaction and market of bitcoin is volatile, meaning it’s uncertain because it changes frequently. There have been a number of research studies that have presented bitcoin price prediction models, but none of them have looked at the controlling variables linked with bitcoin transaction timestamps. It might be that price is not the only key criteria influencing bitcoin transactions, or the available model for bitcoin price prediction is yet to consider timestamp as a determining factor in its transaction. A better and more accurate model would be required to predict how the Timestamp influences changes of bitcoin transactions. That is why this current study utilized a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the prediction of timestamp influence on Bitcoin value. Bitcoin historical datasets which are converted to a nonlinear regression into a “well-formulated” statistical problem in the manner of a ridge regression are used. Simulation analysis indicates that bitcoin digital currency’s performance variation is highly influenced by its transaction timestamp with the prediction accuracy of 96%. The contributions of this research lies with the fact that specific Bitcoin transaction events repeat themselves over and over again, meaning that the Open-Price, High-Price, Low-Price, and Close-Price of Bitcoin price over timestamp developed a pattern that was predicted by NARX with less That means those involved in the transaction of bitcoin at the wrong timestamp will certainly face the uncertainty negative effect of the bitcoin market.
Highlights
At the middle of May 2021, the vast majority of cryptocurrency platforms dropped sharply
The study conceptualized variables from Bitcoin transactions in order to perform prediction simulations under several scenarios designed for the simulation in order to gain a better understanding of the influence of the timestamp on the value of Bitcoin, which was the goal of the research
The reason for doing this lies with the fact that the nature of the datasets of bitcoin associated with timestamp can exhibit patterns which might be linear or nonlinear or both attributes
Summary
At the middle of May 2021, the vast majority of cryptocurrency platforms dropped sharply. Among the major leading cryptocurrencies-based market that were affected include: Dogecoin-31.06%, Ethereum-27.40%, Bitcoin-18.55%, Binance-33.48%, and Shiba On the same day, the Coinbase page was down indicating a message that reads "We’re having connection issues. The whole catastrophe was associated with China’s announcement of a cryptocurrency crackdown and Tesla CEO Elon Musk's announced a week earlier saying that the company would no longer accept bitcoin for its vehicles because of the environment's impact. Within this premise, one can understand that the cryptocurrency-based market is highly influenced by "Time". Activities at the lower levels are all closely tied to the relationship between cryptocurrencies and businesses which occur simultaneously with the time frame [1,2]
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