Abstract
It is important to estimate the contribution of renewable generation units in the evaluation of system generation adequacy for power generation planning taking into account the demand and renewable generation correlation and uncertainty. The effective load carrying capability (ELCC) is usually used for this purpose. In this paper, a noniterative analytical method is proposed for estimating the peak load carrying capability (PLCC) and ELCC of conventional and renewable generation units. The proposed method is verified using the IEEE RTS and an electricity network in New South Wales, Australia, and the results are compared with other estimation methods. The results show that the correlation between demand and renewable generation influences the ELCC of a renewable generation unit—the higher the correlation, the higher the ELCC, and vice versa. The main contribution of this paper is the development of an analytical noniterative and computationally efficient technique, which accounts for the correlation between demand and available renewable generation.
Highlights
THE power output from the renewable generation systems and the load demand are uncertain variables due to their inherently fluctuating nature
The results show that the correlation between demand and renewable generation influences the effective load carrying capability (ELCC) of a renewable generation unit - the higher the correlation, the higher the ELCC, and vice versa
A non-iterative analytical method is proposed for estimating the ELCC of conventional and renewable generating units
Summary
THE power output from the renewable generation systems and the load demand are uncertain variables due to their inherently fluctuating nature. Instead of using chronological data and the commonly used iterative method to account for seasonal and diurnal variation and the correlation between demand and available renewable generations, a non-iterative analytical technique using joint probability distribution of the demand and the renewable generations is proposed to estimate the LOLE and peak load carrying capability (PLCC) of the system, and ELCC of the renewable generation plant. The multi-state non-iterative method [11] does not incorporate the correlation between demand and the renewable generation, which can lead to errors in the estimation of ELCC. A non-iterative method to estimate LOLE for a system using the availability capacity probability table (ACPT) is proposed only for conventional i.e. non-renewable generating units. The addition of renewable generating units to the above system, with peak demand-renewable generation correlation, will be
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