Abstract

In the fifties and sixties, after investigating the worldwide and local catalogues respectively, Aki and Knopoff found that the time series of earthquakes were non-Poissonian even if with aftershocks excluded. At that time it was of importance in earthquake prediction because the nonrandomness in earthquake series gave rise to the hope that some useful message for predicting earthquake risk in the future. In the end of the sixties the probabilistic method was introduced into the assessment of seismic hazard at a site, it became possible to estimate the seismic risk even if the earthquakes happen randomly. Thereafter it is reportedly found that the time series of mainshocks with aftershocks removed are Poissonian. It is worth mentioned that some criterions for a stationary Poisson distribution in the reports are only necessary, not sufficient.

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