A non-singular fractional-order logistic growth model with multi-scaling effects to analyze and forecast population growth in Bangladesh

Abstract

This paper is primarily concerned with data analysis employing the nonlinear least squares curve fitting method and the mathematical prediction of future population growth in Bangladesh. Available actual and adjusted census data (1974–2022) of the Bangladesh population were applied in the well-known autonomous logistic population growth model and found that all data sets of the logistic (exact), Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional-order derivative approach, and logistic multi-scaling approximation fit with good agreement. Again, the existence and uniqueness of the solution for fractional-order and Hyers-Ulam stability have been studied. Generally, the growth rate and maximum environmental support of the population of any country slowly fluctuate with time. Including an approximate closed-form solution in this analysis confers several advantages in assessing population models for single species. Prior studies predominantly employed constant growth rates and carrying capacity, neglecting the investigation of fractional-order methods. Thus, the current study fills a crucial gap in the literature by introducing a more formal approach to analyzing population dynamics. Therefore, we bank on the findings of this article to contribute to accurate population forecasting and planning, national development, and national progress.