A Non-Signalized Junction Model for Agent-Based Simulations of Car–Pedestrian Mode Mass Evacuations

Abstract

During major disasters, such as a subduction earthquake and the associated tsunami, combinations of uncommon conditions such as non-functioning traffic signals, a large number of pedestrians on traffic lanes, and debris scattered on roads can be widespread. It is vital to take these uncommon conditions into account since they can significantly influence the evacuation progress. Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with capabilities to reproduce evacuees’ behaviors as emergent phenomena is promising method to simulate combinations of such rare conditions. This paper presents a new model to cover the current research gap in accurately modeling car–car and car–pedestrian interactions at non-signalized junctions. Specifically, the details of accurately approximating car trajectories at junctions and automated construction, approximating free-flow speed of cars along curved trajectories, and accurately calculating the points of collision and time to collision are presented. As a demonstrative application, we simulated a hypothetical evacuation scenario with non-functioning traffic signals in which different numbers of slow evacuees are allowed to use cars. While the ABM is yet to be thoroughly validated, the presented demonstrative scenarios indicates that a considerable number of the needy can be allowed to use cars for evacuation if their routes and evacuation start time window are well planned.