Abstract
Due to insufficiency and ineffectiveness of monitoring facilities, variations in natural conditions and changes of human behaviors, watershed planning is interwoven with imprecise data, resulting in a multitude of complexities. A robust interval fuzzy programming approach with superiority–inferiority and risk-aversion analyses (RIFP-SIRA) was developed for identifying sustainable agricultural and industrial production strategies at the watershed scale in a highly uncertain environment. RIFP-SIRA represented a novel attempt to tackle synergies of uncertain information in the forms of intervals with non-statistical bounds and conventional intervals. The developed method was applied to a Chinese watershed. A RIFP-SIRA model was formulated and analyzed under three scenarios to investigate the effects of different policies and standards on watershed development plans. Sensitivity of the model's solutions to varied risk-aversion and input-fluctuation levels were analyzed, verifying the superiority of RIFP-SIRA over the existing inexact approaches. This research revealed that RIFP-SIRA could provide local authorities with robust, yet flexible decision plans. It could enable a quantitative analysis over the trade-offs between the economic benefits and environmental risks in the absence of probabilistic information.
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