A Non-Equal Time Interval Incremental Motion Prediction Method for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships

Abstract

Recent technological advancements facilitate the autonomous navigation of maritime surface ships. The accurate data given by a range of various sensors serve as the primary assurance of a voyage's safety. Nevertheless, as sensors have various sample rates, they cannot obtain information at the same time. Fusion decreases the accuracy and reliability of perceptual data if different sensor sample rates are not taken into account. Hence, it is helpful to increase the quality of the fusion information to precisely anticipate the motion status of ships at the sampling time of each sensor. This paper proposes a non-equal time interval incremental prediction method. In this method, the high dimensionality of the estimated state and nonlinearity of the kinematic equation are taken into consideration. First, the cubature Kalman filter is employed to estimate a ship's motion at equal intervals based on the ship's kinematic equation. Next, a ship motion state predictor based on a long short-term memory network structure is created, using the increment and time interval of the historical estimation sequence as the network input and the increment of the motion state at the projected time as the network output. The suggested technique can lessen the effect of the speed difference between the test set and the training set on the prediction accuracy compared with the traditional long short-term memory prediction method. Finally, comparison experiments are carried out to validate the precision and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The experimental results show that the root-mean-square error coefficient of the prediction error is decreased on average by roughly 78% for various modes and speeds when compared with the conventional non-incremental long short-term memory prediction approach. Additionally, the proposed prediction technology and the traditional approach have virtually the same algorithm times, which may fulfill the real engineering requirements.