A nomogram to predict the probability of breast intraductal tumors in patients with nipple discharge: A report based on our 13-year clinical experience.

Abstract

e13582 Background: Nipple discharge is a common symptom of breast disease. Our aim was to perform a descriptive statistical analysis of the cases we collected and to establish a model to predict intraductal tumors. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of patients from 2007 to 2019. The variables were analyzed by the c2 test. Univariate binary logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between clinical features of patients. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the predictive ability of the model. Results: Patients with spontaneous, single duct, bloody discharge and smooth ductal wall were more likely to diagnose with tumor by ductoscopy. A model was established based on seven variables: age, side of discharge, spontaneous or not, duration of discharge, ductal wall and characteristics of discharge. It was subsequently validated in 178 patients with complete data on variables in the validation cohort. The area under ROC curve (AUC) were calculated to be 0.7024 indicating a good predictive ability. Conclusions: Patients with clinical characteristics of unilateral, bloody, single duct, spontaneous discharge and smooth ductal wall were more likely to have intraductal tumors by ductoscopy. Our nomogram can effectively predict intraductal tumors in patients with nipple discharge.