A Nomogram to Predict Recurrence After Bronchial Artery Embolization for Hemoptysis Due to Bronchiectasis.

Abstract

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting recurrent hemoptysis after successful bronchial arterial embolization (BAE) in patients with bronchiectasis. From January 2015 to December 2019, a total of 251 patients were enrolled in this study. A nomogram was developed with the predictors of recurrent events, which were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. We evaluated nomogram discrimination by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration by the calibration curve, and clinical usefulness potential by decision curve analysis. The one-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year cumulative recurrence-free rates of patients were 98.4%, 90.5%, 82.8%, 77.7%, and 74.4%, respectively. Three predictive factors, namely sex, lung destruction, and systemic arterial-pulmonary circulation shunts, were applied to develop the nomogram. The model maintained good discrimination (area under the curve, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.81), low prediction error (integrated Brier score, 0.129), and certain net benefits in terms of clinical usefulness. The proposed nomogram showed favorable predictive efficacy for hemoptysis recurrence after BAE in patients with bronchiectasis. Improved long-term outcomes are expected with close follow-up, a healthy lifestyle, and pulmonary rehabilitation for patients at risk of recurrence according to the model.