A Nomogram Predicting Microvascular Invasion Risk in BCLC 0/A Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Curative Resection.

Abstract

Background Numerous studies have shown that hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without microvascular invasion (MVI) may have better outcomes. This study established a preoperative MVI risk nomogram mainly incorporating three related risk factors of MVI in BCLC 0/A HCC after surgery. Methods Independent predictors for the risk of MVI were investigated, and an MVI risk nomogram was established based on 60 patients in the training group who underwent curative hepatectomy for BCLC 0/A HCC and validated using a dataset in the validation group. Results Univariate analysis in the training group showed that hepatitis viral B (HBV) DNA (P=0.034), tumor size (P<0.001), CT value in the venous phase (P=0.039), CT value in the delayed phase (P=0.017), peritumoral enhancement (P=0.013), visible small blood vessels in the arterial phase (P=0.002), and distance from the tumor to the inferior vena cava (IVC) (DTI, P=0.004) were risk factors significantly associated with the presence of MVI. According to multivariate analysis, the independent predictive factors of MVI, including tumor size (P=0.002), CT value in the delayed phase (P=0.018), and peritumoral enhancement (P=0.057), were incorporated in the corresponding nomogram. The nomogram displayed an unadjusted C-index of 0.851 and a bootstrap-corrected C-index of 0.832. Calibration curves also showed good agreement on the presence of MVI. ROC curve analyses showed that the nomogram had a large AUC (0.851). Conclusions The proposed nomogram consisting of tumor size, CT value in the delayed phase, and peritumoral enhancement was associated with MVI risk in BCLC 0/A HCC following curative hepatectomy.