A nomogram model based on the combination of the systemic immune-inflammation index, body mass index, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio to predict the risk of preoperative deep venous thrombosis in elderly patients with intertrochanteric femoral fracture: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

ObjectivesDeep vein thrombosis (DVT) has been considered as a frequent and serious consequence of intertrochanteric femoral fractures in the elderly. Several negative repercussions of DVT can be considerably mitigated by its timely recognition and treatment. The current work was aimed at exploring the factors independently predicting DVT among cases suffering from intertrochanteric femoral fractures and validate their predictive usefulness in diagnosing DVT.MethodsBetween April 2017 and July 2022, clinical information from 209 cases showing preoperative DVT for femoral intertrochanteric fractures were retrospectively evaluated. In patients with femoral intertrochanteric fractures, logistic regression analysis with a backward stepwise method was adopted for detecting independent predictors for the diagnosis of preoperative DVT. Using multivariate logistic regression, a nomogram prediction model was developed and verified with the testing group.ResultsAccording to multivariate logistic regression model, body mass index (BMI) (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63–0.99, P = 0.042), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR 7.29, 95% CI 1.53, 34.64, P = 0.0012), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) (OR 6.61, 95% CI 2.35, 18.59, P = 0.001) were independent predictors for DVT before surgery among cases developing intertrochanteric femoral fracture. AUC values were 0.862 and 0.767 for training and testing groups, separately, while their mean errors in the calibration curve were 0.027 and 0.038 separately. Decision curve analysis (DCA) curve revealed a high value of clinical application for both groups.ConclusionUpon admission, BMI, NLR, and SII are independent predictors of DVT before surgery among cases developing intertrochanteric femoral fractures. Additionally, the nomogram based on the BMI, NLR, and SII can assist clinicians in determining if preventive and symptomatic therapies are required to improve DVT prognosis and reduce its associated mortality.