Abstract
Objective: Early identification for the need of tracheostomy (TT) in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients remains one of the main challenges in clinical practice. Our study aimed to establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting postoperative TT in aSAH patients.Methods: Patients with aSAH receiving active treatment (interventional embolization or clipping) in our institution between June 2012 and December 2018 were retrospectively included. The effects of patients' baseline information, aneurysm features, and surgical factors on the occurrence of postoperative TT were investigated for establishing a nomogram in the training cohort with 393 patients. External validation for the nomogram was performed in the validation cohort with 242 patients.Results: After multivariate analysis, higher age, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), high World Federation of Neurological Surgeons Scale (WFNS), and high Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) grade were left in the final logistic regression model. The predictive power of the model was excellent in both training cohort and validation cohort [area under the curve (AUC): 0.924, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893–0.948; AUC: 0.881, 95% CI: 0.833–0.919]. A nomogram consisting of these factors had a C-index of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.869–0.979) in the training cohort and was validated in the validation cohort (C-index: 0.881, 95% CI: 0.812–0.950). The calibration curves suggested good match between prediction and observation in both training and validation cohorts.Conclusion: Our study established and validated a nomogram model for predicting postoperative TT in aSAH patients.
Highlights
Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage is an acute cerebrovascular disease which causes serious damage to the central nervous system and pathophysiological consequences on many organs of the body [1]
After multivariate analysis, higher age, high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), high World Federation of Neurological Surgeons Scale (WFNS), and high Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) grade were left in the final logistic regression model
The predictive power of the model was excellent in both training cohort and validation cohort [area under the curve (AUC): 0.924, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893–0.948; AUC: 0.881, 95% CI: 0.833–0.919]
Summary
Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is an acute cerebrovascular disease which causes serious damage to the central nervous system and pathophysiological consequences on many organs of the body [1]. As a common and effective airway management strategy, TT could reduce airway resistance and improve airway compliance, resulting in reduction of the use of sedatives and respiratory complications especially in those patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. Several retrospective studies confirmed that the timing of TT could have significant effects in outcomes of patients with hemorrhagic stroke [4, 5]. A retrospective study stated that 31% of patients with hemorrhagic stroke underwent TT and SAH was confirmed to be a risk factor associated with increased likelihood of TT [7]. Earlier TT was proved to make a significant contribution to shorter overall hospitalization in this study [7]
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