A nomogram for predicting overall survival rate in patients with brain metastatic non-small cell lung cancer.

Abstract

The purpose was to develop a nomogram for the prediction of the 1- and 2-year overall survival (OS) rates in patients with brain metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (BMNSCLC).Patients were collected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program (SEER) and classified into the training and validation groups. Several independent prognostic factors identified by statistical methods were incorporated to establish a predictive nomogram. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and calibration curve were applied to estimate predictive ability of the nomogram. To compare the clinical practicability of the nomogram and TNM staging system by decision curve analysis (DCA).A total of 24,164 eligible patients were collected and assigned into the training (n = 16,916) and validation groups (n = 7248). Based on the prognostic factors, we developed a nomogram with good discriminative ability. The C-indices for training and validation group were 0.727 and 0.728. The AUCs of 1- and 2-year OS rates were both 0.8, and the calibration curves also demonstrated good performance of the nomogram. DCA illustrated that the nomogram provided clinical net benefit compared with the TNM staging system.We developed a predictive nomogram for more accurate and comprehensive prediction of OS in BMNSCLC patients, which can be a useful and convenient tool for clinicians to make proper clinical decisions, and adjust follow-up management strategies.