Abstract
To develop a nomogram-based predictive model of tooth survival by comprehensively analysing clinical and radiographic risk factors of tooth loss (TL). In this study, 3447 teeth of 131 subjects who underwent non-surgical periodontal treatment were examined retrospectively within a mean follow-up period of 11.6 years. The association of risk factors including clinical and radiographic parameters with TL was assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram-based predictive model was developed, and its validation and discriminatory ability were analysed. In all, 313 teeth were lost in 94 patients in this study (overall tooth loss [OTL] 9.08%; 0.21 teeth/patient/year). Male, heavy smoking, molar teeth, probing depth (PD), attachment loss (AL), tooth mobility and radiographic bone loss were significantly associated with TL (p < .05). A gradient effect of tooth mobility on TL increased from degree I to III versus none (p < .0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.865. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrated good performance and high net benefit, respectively. Adopting a specific nomogram could facilitate the prediction of tooth survival and the development of tailored treatment plans in Chinese patients with advanced periodontitis.
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