A Nomogram Based on Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound to Predict the Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

The aim of this study was to establish and validate a contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) nomogram for pre-operative microvascular invasion (MVI) prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and compare it with the nomogram based on gadopentetate dimeglumine-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (Gd-MRI). A total of 251 patients with a single HCC were enrolled in this prospective study, including 176 patients in the training cohort and 75 patients in the validation cohort. Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) with Sonazoid and Gd-MRI was performed pre-operatively. Post-operative histopathology was the gold standard for MVI. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to determine independent risk factors for MVI. Nomograms based on CEUS and Gd-MRI were established, and their discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis were evaluated and compared. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that arterial circular enhancement, non-enhancing area and thick ring-like enhancement in the post-vascular phase were independent risk factors for MVI. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the nomogram were 0.841 (0.779-0.892) and 0.914 (0.827-0.966) in the training and validation cohorts, with no significant difference compared with the Gd-MRI nomogram (p=0.294, 0.321). The C-indexes were 0.821 and 0.870 in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis revealed that the CEUS nomogram had better clinical applicability than the Gd-MRI nomogram when the threshold probability was between 0.35 and 0.95. The CEUS-based nomogram was available for predicting MVI in HCC, and its predictive performance was not inferior to that of Gd-MRI.