Abstract
According to the latest Whitehall analysis, the UK economy could be between 6.3% and 10.7% smaller in a no-deal scenario, compared to remaining in the EU. These figures refer to the level of GDP around 15 years after the UK’s new relationship with the EU comes into effect. Another study by the Bank of England included scenarios where GDP could be more than 10% lower than otherwise within only a few years. According to the latest IEA ‘fear-checker’, the Whitehall analysis combines relatively high estimates of the potential long-term costs of ‘no deal’ Brexit with relatively low estimates of the potential benefits. The Bank of England analysis is intentionally (albeit justifiably) designed to provide ‘worst case’ scenarios for the near-term impact. Different assumptions could therefore lead to very different conclusions, meaning that neither study comes even close to proving that Brexit would leave the UK economy X% smaller or £Ybn worse off.
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